In October 2023, Eskom Holdings SOC Limited (“Eskom”) published the Transmission Development Plan 2023 – 2032 (“the 2023 Transmission Plan”). The 2023 Transmission Plan primarily focuses on South Africa’s transmission network with electrical networks that have voltages ranging from 220 kV to 765 kV. The purpose of the 2023 Transmission Plan is to assess South Africa’s network requirements and propose plans to meet the load demand and generation integration forecasted in the next 10 years.
Electricity Generation Forecast in the 2023 Transmission Plan
The 2023 Transmission Plan forecasts electricity generation based on two generation methods, namely: the conventional generation method (this uses coal and other non-renewable resources to generate electricity) and the renewable generation method (which uses renewable energy sources to generate electricity). Renewable energy plays an important role in Eskom’s electricity generation forecast over the coming 10-year period to which the 2023 Transmission Plan applies. Renewable energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy are of particular significance, given South Africa’s strategic advantage in its abundance of these resources.
The 2023 Transmission Plan anticipates that the cumulative conventional capacity that will be added to the electrical grid by 2032 is a total of 17 809 MW, with the majority of this generation capacity coming from coal sources. However, due to funding constraints experienced by independent power producers that use coal sources, the 2023 Transmission Plan expects that energy generated from open cycle gas turbines will also play a noteworthy role in meeting South Africa’s energy needs. According to the 2023 Transmission Plan, the need for and importance of open cycle gas turbines will only increase as more renewable energy capacity is installed.
According to the 2023 Transmission Plan, the total renewable capacity that will be added to the country’s energy mix is approximately 43 336 MW by 2032. Of the capacity expected to be added, the 2023 Transmission Plan anticipates that solar photovoltaic energy generation technology will add approximately 18 326 MW to the country’s energy grid. Whereas the 2023 Transmission Plan anticipates that approximately 26 347 MW of energy will be added to the country’s energy grid by wind energy generation technologies. Solar and wind energy is anticipated to make up the vast majority of all renewable energy added to South Africa’s energy grid over the coming 10 years.
The 2023 Transmission Plan forecasts that from the period of 2023 – 2032, Eskom anticipates that approximately 45GW of renewable energy will be generated (this includes energy generation from solar technology and wind technology), 27 GW of electricity will be generated from coal sources and 8.5 GW of electricity will be generated from open cycle gas turbines and closed cycle gas turbines. Significantly, hydro power and nuclear power have not been discussed at length as part of the country’s energy mix in the 2023 Transmission Plan. The 2023 Transmission Plan expects renewable energy, as a percentage of total energy capacity, to increase from 13% in 2022 to 46% in 2032. Conversely, conventional generation is expected to decrease from 87% in 2021 to 47% in 2032.
Interestingly, though the 2023 Transmission Plan makes significant strides to integrate renewable energy sources into the country’s energy mix, conventional energy generation sources (such as coal) will continue to make up most of the total capacity of the country’s energy mix over the coming 10 years.
Domestic Electricity Demand Outlook in the 2023 Transmission Plan
The 2023 Transmission Plan considers energy demand from an international and a local perspective. Since most of the electricity produced by Eskom is consumed domestically, we will focus on Eskom’s energy demand outlook within the context of South Africa. The 2023 Transmission Plan uses certain ‘demand drivers’, to model and attempt to predict the country’s future electricity demand. According to the 2023 Transmission Plan, in South Africa, electricity demand is driven primarily by consumer behaviour in the residential sector and the investment policies of companies and other juristic persons in the industrial sector.
The 2023 Transmission Plan notes that electricity demand is set to increase in the residential sector, owing to high levels of population growth and an increasing rate of urbanisation. Additionally, data centres in main cities across the country will also demand more electricity over the coming 10-year period because data centres need to “function on highly reliable and energy-intensive data.” The 2023 Transmission Plan also notes that another important domestic demand driver is the development of more decarbonized energy sources and fuel alternatives, which will lead to a greater uptake of technological advancements such as electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel manufacturing and gas-to-fuel production.
It is difficult to give a precise figure of how much additional energy capacity will be needed or demanded by the South African population over the coming 10 years. However, the 2023 Transmission Plan estimates that over the next 10 years, South Africa’s energy demand may increase by an additional 6 000MW.
Conclusion
The 2023 Transmission Plan introduces decarbonised energy generation methods to meet South Africa’s international climate obligations and the country’s energy needs, considering domestic consumption, sectoral consumption, and the country’s economic growth objectives. From a reading of the 2023 Transmission Plan, it is evident that coal will still form an integral part of the country’s energy mix and Eskom will continue to rely on coal and other non-renewable energy sources to meet the country’s energy needs and demands over the coming 10 years.
Solar and wind sources are expected to be the largest contributors to the country’s energy mix from a renewable energy perspective, cumulatively contributing approximately 43 336 MW to the national electrical grid by 2032. The 2023 Transmission Plan is useful to gauge the government and Eskom’s plans for energy supply in the country over the coming 10 years and serves as a useful tool to determine the emphasis placed on the government and Eskom on different energy sources which will make up the country’s energy mix. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how the plans contained in the 2023 Transmission Plan will be implemented over the next 10 years.
Mihlali Sitefane
Njabulo Mchunu
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